Schedule

Free allocation phase-out

The share of embedded carbon cost an importer pays each year as free allocation is withdrawn, reaching full cost in 2034.

2026
2.5%
Costs covered
2027
5%
Costs covered
2028
10%
Costs covered
2029
22.5%
Costs covered
2030
48.5%
Costs covered
2031
61%
Costs covered
2032
73.5%
Costs covered
2033
86%
Costs covered
2034
100%
Full cost

Timeline

Regulatory milestones

Key dates from the definitive phase through the first major revision and full phase-in.

January 2026

CBAM Effective

Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621 Annex I takes effect. All thirteen countries enter the system with their respective default values.

  • 4 EU-confirmed defaults published
  • 9 countries on the 1.584 fallback
  • Phase-in at 2.5%
April 2026

First CBAM Price Published

The European Commission publishes the first official CBAM certificate auction price. Q1 2026: €75.36/tCO2, the reference price for modelling.

  • Price becomes the importer baseline
  • Updated quarterly
Mid 2026

Country-Specific Negotiations

The Commission begins negotiations with Turkey, Serbia, Bosnia, and North Macedonia on cement-specific defaults, with parallel discussion on Vietnam, India, and UAE.

  • Turkey: 80% penalty on unverified cement
  • Balkans: iron & steel already published
December 2027

First Major Revision Deadline

Hard legal deadline under Regulation (EU) 2023/956. The Commission must publish country-specific cement defaults for at least 5–7 countries.

  • Expected: Turkey, Serbia, Bosnia updates
  • Vietnam, India review ongoing
  • Phase-in increases to 5%
January 2028

Updated Defaults Take Effect

New country-specific cement defaults published in December 2027 become effective. A mark-up schedule applies: +20% on defaults.

  • Phase-in increases to 10%
  • Revised cost models required
2029–2034

Progressive Phase-In

The CBAM obligation grows from 22.5% to 100% as free allocation is phased out. Industry adapts to full carbon cost by 2034.

  • 2029: 22.5% coverage
  • 2030: 48.5% coverage
  • 2034: 100% coverage (end of free allocation)

Note: Dates and figures reflect EU CBAM regulation (IR 2025/2621 and Regulation (EU) 2023/956) as published. Country-specific defaults and revision outcomes are subject to Commission decisions. This tracker is informational and does not constitute legal advice. EU IR 2025/2621