The free-allocation phase-out schedule and the regulatory milestones that move CBAM from a 97.5% benchmark deduction in 2026 to full carbon cost in 2034.
Schedule
The benchmark deduction an importer receives each year as free allocation is withdrawn. Certificates due equal embedded emissions minus this deduction, reaching full carbon cost in 2034.
Timeline
Key dates from the definitive phase through the first major revision and full phase-in.
Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621 Annex I takes effect. All thirteen countries enter the system with their respective default values.
The European Commission publishes the first official CBAM certificate auction price. Q1 2026: €75.36/tCO2, the reference price for modelling.
The Commission begins negotiations with Turkey, Serbia, Bosnia, and North Macedonia on cement-specific defaults, with parallel discussion on Vietnam, India, and UAE.
Hard legal deadline under Regulation (EU) 2023/956. The Commission must publish country-specific cement defaults for at least 5-7 countries.
New country-specific cement defaults published in December 2027 become effective. The default mark-up rises to +30%.
The benchmark deduction falls from 77.5% to zero as free allocation is phased out. Industry adapts to full carbon cost by 2034.
Note: Dates and figures reflect EU CBAM regulation (IR 2025/2620, IR 2025/2621 and Regulation (EU) 2023/956) as published. Country-specific defaults and revision outcomes are subject to Commission decisions. This tracker is informational and does not constitute legal advice. EU IR 2025/2621