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MSE Capability

Commercial Risk Management

MSE builds and runs a commercial risk register for a physical commodity book — identifying, quantifying, prioritising and monitoring the full risk surface, so a principal sees concentrated exposure before it materialises, not after.

Risk on a physical book is rarely missing — it is unconsolidated. Each desk knows its own exposure; nobody holds the aggregate. The position that closes a company is usually the one no one had quantified.

Where value leaks

The exposure no one has quantified

Risk lives in heads, not on paper

Each desk knows its own exposure; the consolidated picture is held by no one. The aggregate open position is invisible until something breaks.

No common unit

Price risk in one place, logistics risk in another, counterparty risk in a third — none comparable. You cannot rank what you cannot compare, so attention and capital follow noise.

Static assessment

Risk is scored once a year and filed. The market moves, the counterparty degrades, the route shifts — and the register drifts from the live book.

Compliance risk as a legal overlay

For flows touching sanctioned-adjacent geographies, this is the risk that closes a company, and it is usually the least quantified line in the book.

Mitigation without an owner

A risk is identified with no owner, no deadline and no follow-through. Identification for its own sake.

How MSE works

One register, one scale

The full risk surface of the book is mapped across one frame — market (price, premium, FX, rate), operational (logistics, quality, force majeure), counterparty (credit, performance, concentration), compliance (sanctions, CBAM, customs, ESG) and corporate (legal, reputational). Each risk is quantified on a single scale, probability against financial impact expressed in money, and ranked by one index, so attention and capital follow exposure rather than noise. Every material risk carries an owner, a mitigation and a deadline, and the register is re-scored on a fixed cycle with a documented rationale for each change — so it tracks the live book and every movement is explainable.

Track record

$4.5B+
Physical book
$65M+
Margin uplift
84–96%
On-time-in-full
30+
Years

Across a $4.5B+ physical book over 30+ years — the same book that delivered $65M+ in margin uplift and on-time-in-full of 84–96% — MSE has designed and operated a quantified commercial risk register covering operational, market, counterparty and compliance exposure on a single scale.

Mandate format

How an engagement is structured

Advisory mandate

Design of the risk register and the scoring framework, including categories, the quantification scale and the index.

Execution mandate

Running the monitoring cycle: re-scoring, ownership, mitigation tracking and reporting on a fixed cadence.

Engage MSE

Discuss a mandate

If your book’s risk lives in heads rather than on paper, MSE will build the register that holds it.

Start a confidential discussion →